2026-04-23 13:12:52 UTC — refreshes every 60s
| Category | Trades | Win Rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature: High | 10 | 20% | $-171.48 |
| Market | Side | Entry | Model P | Edge | Cost | Opened | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature: High (2) | |||||||
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22? | NO | 0.385 | 0.688 | +0.303 | $50.50 | Apr 21 18:23 | Apr 22 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr | NO | 0.305 | 0.584 | +0.279 | $30.30 | Apr 23 06:55 | Apr 23 |
| Market | Side | Model P | Mkt P | Edge | Resolves | Evaluated | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dismissed (46) | ||||||||
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on | NO | 0.778 | 0.969 | -0.191 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | NO price out of range (0.03) | |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April | NO | 0.797 | 0.999 | -0.202 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | NO price out of range (0.00) | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher o | NO | 0.419 | 0.710 | -0.291 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Already hold position for San Francisco on 2026-04-23 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on April | YES | 0.246 | 0.040 | +0.206 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | YES price out of range (0.04) | |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on | YES | 0.035 | 0.016 | +0.019 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Edge too small (0.019 < 0.180) | |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on Apr | YES | 0.031 | 0.006 | +0.025 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Edge too small (0.025 < 0.180) | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on Ap | YES | 0.015 | 0.002 | +0.013 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Edge too small (0.013 < 0.180) | |
| Amsterdam: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Busan: 4 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Helsinki: 7 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Jakarta: 7 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Kuala Lumpur: 3 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Panama City: 9 narrow-bin markets dismissed | Apr 23 | |||||||
| Skipped (no data) (4) | ||||||||
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on Apri | — | 0.000 | 0.000 | +0.000 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Insufficient data sources | |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on A | — | 0.000 | 0.000 | +0.000 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Insufficient data sources | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C or below on Apr | — | 0.000 | 0.000 | +0.000 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Insufficient data sources | |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on April | — | 0.000 | 0.000 | +0.000 | Apr 23 | Apr 23 07:46 | Insufficient data sources | |
| Side | Size | Z | Price | Flags | Wallet | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or h (1) | ||||||
| BUY | $579 | 14.5 | 0.971 | 0x68dddb0edd | Apr 20 10:32 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or h (7) | ||||||
| BUY | $2,497 | 3.4 | 0.999 | 0xea1cf96f16 | Apr 23 06:12 | |
| BUY | $2,830 | 3.9 | 0.998 | 0x937bcac3a8 | Apr 23 05:58 | |
| BUY | $4,994 | 7.1 | 0.999 | 0xea25d55fdf | Apr 23 02:27 | |
| BUY | $7,580 | 10.8 | 0.999 | 0x15ceffed7b | Apr 22 22:29 | |
| BUY | $4,033 | 5.7 | 0.995 | 0x937bcac3a8 | Apr 22 21:42 | |
| BUY | $3,614 | 5.1 | 0.999 | 0x15ceffed7b | Apr 22 21:30 | |
| BUY | $9,937 | 14.2 | 0.995 | 0xedc3c1f999 | Apr 22 21:29 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 5 (5) | ||||||
| BUY | $543 | 12.3 | 0.866 | 0x5b119e853a | Apr 22 20:33 | |
| BUY | $543 | 13.0 | 0.866 | 0x5b119e853a | Apr 22 20:33 | |
| BUY | $543 | 13.0 | 0.866 | 0x5b119e853a | Apr 22 20:33 | |
| BUY | $525 | 18.4 | 0.720 | 0x1a2baf3a78 | Apr 22 05:09 | |
| BUY | $525 | 17.9 | 0.720 | 0x1a2baf3a78 | Apr 22 05:09 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or h (5) | ||||||
| BUY | $1,484 | 6.7 | 0.990 | CNTR | 0x9ffe09c8f6 | Apr 20 04:01 |
| BUY | $4,184 | 19.2 | 0.997 | CNTR | 0x0e06348f65 | Apr 20 03:42 |
| BUY | $838 | 3.7 | 0.990 | CNTR | 0x116db6298a | Apr 20 03:15 |
| BUY | $700 | 3.1 | 0.973 | CNTR | 0x4e5c2d6570 | Apr 20 02:55 |
| BUY | $942 | 4.2 | 0.950 | CNTR | 0x36f662fcbd | Apr 20 02:11 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or h (6) | ||||||
| BUY | $2,700 | 11.1 | 0.998 | CNTR | 0x8d71ff8670 | Apr 21 06:16 |
| BUY | $3,434 | 14.2 | 0.999 | CNTR | 0x36f662fcbd | Apr 21 05:33 |
| BUY | $666 | 2.7 | 0.998 | CNTR | 0x8d71ff8670 | Apr 21 04:45 |
| BUY | $2,999 | 12.4 | 0.998 | CNTR | 0x0e06348f65 | Apr 21 03:45 |
| BUY | $760 | 12.7 | 0.760 | 0x1f66796b45 | Apr 21 00:23 | |
| BUY | $988 | 16.6 | 0.760 | 0xeb74bbd3a2 | Apr 21 00:06 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or (1) | ||||||
| BUY | $1,408 | 20.1 | 0.960 | 0x1a2baf3a78 | Apr 19 16:34 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or h (1) | ||||||
| BUY | $1,246 | 20.0 | 0.999 | 0x116db6298a | Apr 21 09:07 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 58 (1) | ||||||
| BUY | $928 | 8.9 | 0.998 | 0xea25d55fdf | Apr 23 01:05 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or hi (1) | ||||||
| BUY | $862 | 8.2 | 0.999 | 0x0d2ea4f8d0 | Apr 22 11:38 | |
| Market | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Closed | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Apri | NO | 0.365 | 0.980 | $84.25 | Apr 22 21:14 | Apr 22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21? | YES | 0.275 | 0.050 | $-38.71 | Apr 21 18:23 | Apr 21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? | YES | 0.675 | 0.120 | $-41.11 | Apr 21 18:23 | Apr 21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April | NO | 0.355 | 1.000 | $90.85 | Apr 21 12:23 | Apr 20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 20? | NO | 0.565 | 0.000 | $-50.00 | Apr 21 12:23 | Apr 20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 21? | YES | 0.205 | 0.004 | $-33.08 | Apr 21 06:23 | Apr 21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 20? | YES | 0.555 | 0.000 | $-50.00 | Apr 21 06:23 | Apr 20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 20 | NO | 0.605 | 0.000 | $-50.00 | Apr 20 18:23 | Apr 20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 2 | NO | 0.745 | 0.000 | $-50.00 | Apr 20 12:23 | Apr 20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? | YES | 0.265 | 0.007 | $-33.67 | Apr 20 06:23 | Apr 20 |
| Bet | Side | Model P | Mkt P | Edge | Result | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F o | NO | 0.416 | 0.700 | -0.284 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 161/506 years (31.8%) in above 66.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 23 | nwp: GFS N(64.97, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.4031; ECMWF N(62.00, 3.00) CDF(above 66.0°F)=0.1702; weighted=0.2983 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.58 seasonal_mult=1.4 city_bias=-1.5°F | Kelly: f=0.0300, cost=$30.30, qty=98 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or high | NO | 0.312 | 0.620 | -0.308 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 5/506 years (1.0%) in above 66.2°F within +/-5 days of Apr 22 | nwp: GFS N(65.28, 3.00) CDF(above 66.2°F)=0.3790; ECMWF N(63.75, 3.00) CDF(above 66.2°F)=0.2073; weighted=0.3017 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.62 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=130 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F o | NO | 0.332 | 0.640 | -0.308 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 90/506 years (17.8%) in below 55.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 22 | nwp: GFS N(57.08, 5.63) CDF(below 55.0°F)=0.3558; ECMWF N(59.13, 3.00) CDF(below 55.0°F)=0.0841; weighted=0.2336 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=4.25 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=137 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or high | YES | 0.447 | 0.270 | +0.176 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 466/506 years (92.1%) in above 72.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 21 | nwp: GFS N(71.21, 3.00) CDF(above 72.0°F)=0.3961; ECMWF N(68.47, 3.00) CDF(above 72.0°F)=0.1198; weighted=0.2718 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.20 | Kelly: f=0.0473, cost=$47.78, qty=172 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or highe | YES | 0.800 | 0.670 | +0.130 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 490/506 years (96.8%) in above 64.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 21 | nwp: GFS N(65.13, 3.00) CDF(above 64.0°F)=0.6463; ECMWF N(68.71, 3.00) CDF(above 64.0°F)=0.9418; weighted=0.7793 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=3.13 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=74 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher | YES | 0.339 | 0.200 | +0.139 | OPEN | climatology: Base rate: 231/506 years (45.7%) in above 64.4°F within +/-5 days of Apr 21 | nwp: GFS N(63.07, 3.00) CDF(above 64.4°F)=0.3285; ECMWF N(65.72, 3.00) CDF(above 64.4°F)=0.6706; weighted=0.4825 at 1d horizon; ensemble std_dev=1.53 | Kelly: f=0.0337, cost=$34.07, qty=165 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or | NO | 0.323 | 0.650 | -0.327 | WIN | climatology: Base rate: 223/506 years (44.1%) in above 78.8°F within +/-5 days of Apr 20 | nwp: GFS N(72.96, 3.00) CDF(above 78.8°F)=0.0257; ECMWF N(74.50, 3.00) CDF(above 78.8°F)=0.0758; weighted=0.0482 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.17 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=141 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or belo | YES | 0.730 | 0.550 | +0.180 | LOSS | climatology: Base rate: 273/506 years (54.0%) in below 55.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 20 | nwp: GFS N(50.71, 3.00) CDF(below 55.0°F)=0.9237; ECMWF N(46.49, 3.00) CDF(below 55.0°F)=0.9977; weighted=0.9570 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.93 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or hig | NO | 0.196 | 0.400 | -0.204 | LOSS | climatology: Base rate: 105/506 years (20.8%) in above 66.2°F within +/-5 days of Apr 20 | nwp: GFS N(61.27, 3.00) CDF(above 66.2°F)=0.0501; ECMWF N(61.95, 3.00) CDF(above 66.2°F)=0.0784; weighted=0.0628 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=0.61 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=83 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below | NO | 0.305 | 0.440 | -0.135 | LOSS | climatology: Base rate: 80/506 years (15.8%) in below 71.0°F within +/-5 days of Apr 20 | nwp: GFS N(73.16, 3.00) CDF(below 71.0°F)=0.2358; ECMWF N(71.78, 3.00) CDF(below 71.0°F)=0.3979; weighted=0.3087 at 0d horizon; ensemble std_dev=2.07 | Kelly: f=0.0500, cost=$50.50, qty=88 |
DB: paper_run_20260419_122324.db